New nationwide poll puts Peter Obi ahead of Atiku, Tinubu, runoff likely in 2023 presidential election

New nationwide poll puts Peter Obi ahead of Atiku, Tinubu, runoff likely in 2023 presidential election

Another new face-to-face nationwide poll on the 2023 general elections has put the Labour Party Presidential candidate, Peter Obi, ahead with 37% of the survey respondents.

Obi is followed by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Atiku Abubakar, who secured 27% of the survey responses, while the All Progressive Congress (APC) candidate, Bola Tinubu, secured 24% with New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) candidate securing at 6% of survey respondents.

This disclosure is contained in a press statement by Nextier, an African-focused consulting firm, where it presented the second presidential poll conducted it conducted, on  Friday, January  27,  2023, 4 weeks before the scheduled presidential elections.

The Nextier team used a sample size of 3,000 respondents and generated a margin of error of 2% at a 95% confidence interval.

The survey sample represented the age and gender demographics in Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. Although Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, it is unlikely to secure an outright first-round victory. None of the presidential candidates met both criteria for victory in the first round: a majority of votes cast and 25% in two-thirds of the states.

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Runoff election likely despite Labour party lead.

The survey results show that Labour Party can achieve 25% of the votes in 23 states, meaning that the presidential election could head to a runoff between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu.

Most registered voters (72%) have decided on their preferred party. This result is consistent across rural and urban voters. Similarly, the survey data demonstrates that respondents are certain in their choices.

The survey showed that 83% of the respondents indicated that nothing would make them change their preferred party before the election. It is important to note that the survey questionnaire showed the party logos and names instead of the candidates’ names or images.

Significantly higher voter turnout expected in 2023 presidential election

Nextier in its report from the survey noted that voter turnout in the 2023 presidential election could be significantly higher than in 2019. For instance, 77% of respondents indicated that they ‘will vote in this election, while 63% stated that they “will definitely vote.”

This level of commitment was consistent across all age and gender demographics in rural and urban communities. Despite the voter commitment, turnout could be depressed by a combination of factors, which include insecurity, concerns about the freedom and fairness of the election, and concerns about the impartiality of Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission(INEC).

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Only 52% of the respondents trust that the elections will be free and fair.  Only 47% of respondents trust that INEC will not manipulate the results.

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