Can we say that democracy in Nigeria is growing when compared to the political drama from 1979 to December 1983? One may view the period from 1999 to 2025 as an improvement in our political experiment since our transition from colonial rule to democracy, even amid periods of military intervention.
In fact, we are currently experiencing the longest stretch of uninterrupted civilian governance since our independence from the British Empire, 25 years and counting. By contrast, the longest period of civilian rule we previously experienced lasted only six years, from 1960 to July 15, 1966.
This remarkable continuity is a testament to the resilience of our democratic institutions, even as they continue to battle persistent challenges that have plagued our political landscape for decades.
We had another period of civilian rule between October 1979 and December 1983, which was cut short by a military coup led by General Muhammadu Buhari. This was followed by an incomplete transition under General Ibrahim Babangida, who annulled what was believed to be the most credible election in our history.
Consequently, we found ourselves under the grip of one of the toughest dictators in our past, General Sani Abacha whose regime was described by some as “sweet and sour.”
Abacha created several states, introduced various economic measures, and established the Petroleum Trust Fund, tasked with the repair and rehabilitation of roads.
The abrupt end to this brief democratic experiment not only disrupted the nation’s political progress but also sowed seeds of disillusionment among the populace, leaving a legacy of distrust that still reverberates in contemporary politics.
Over the past 25 years, our democracy has remained steady, though it has been marred by issues such as corruption and nepotism, which have given rise to numerous societal ills: internet fraud (Yahoo boys), ritual killings, kidnappings, banditry, youth restiveness, and religious insurgency.
Additionally, political godfathers; mostly outgoing Governors, do everything possible to install successors who will help them retain control over state resources and cover up their excesses.
This persistent practice of godfatherism has entrenched a culture where political loyalty is bought and sold, undermining the ideals of meritocracy and accountability. It has not only stifled genuine leadership but also deepened the divide between the governing elite and the ordinary citizens.
At the completion of his eight-year tenure, the incumbent Nigerian President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, installed his Chief of Staff as the governor of Lagos State under the guise of continuity.
Similarly, Adams Oshiomhole installed Godwin Obaseki, but their relationship soured when Obaseki refused to follow his former boss’s directives.
The conflict between Oshiomhole and Obaseki continues to rage in Edo State despite another transition. Such maneuvers revealed the intricacies of power play in Nigerian politics, where loyalty is often enforced through coercion, and any deviation from the expected line of succession can lead to bitter and protracted conflicts that destabilise the political environment.
Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola also clashed with his successor to the point that Osun State was lost to the opposition after four years because Oyetola stopped taking directives from him in Abuja.
Similarly, the successor of Godswill Akpabio in Akwa Ibom State is still under investigation by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC).
These examples underscore the volatile nature of political alliances in Nigeria, where the fallout from leadership disputes often spills over into broader electoral and administrative challenges, leaving states vulnerable to instability and governance crises.
To me, Governor Siminalayi Fubara appears to be an amateur politician who failed to wake up at the right time. Bravo to Governor Okpebholo of Edo State, who secured the loyalty of all State Assembly members immediately upon assuming office.
Even before Obaseki became a storm in his teacup, Okpebholo, despite the support of Adams Oshiomhole, can be rest assured because he holds a majority in the House of Assembly. The contrast between these two leaders highlights the importance of strategic political acumen and the ability to build robust alliances.
While Okpebholo’s proactive measures have insulated his administration, Fubara’s missteps leave him exposed to the inevitable machinations of political adversaries.
A similar conflict is ongoing in Kaduna State. The incumbent governor is fortunate that Nasir El-Rufai does not hold a ministerial appointment in Abuja; otherwise, the situation might have been even worse than in Rivers State.
In summary, most godfathers eventually fall out with their successors. The pattern is clear: as soon as the protective umbrella of the godfather is lifted or their control is challenged, the entire political structure begins to crumble, often with devastating consequences for state governance and public trust.
The ongoing drama in Rivers State, if not handled with care, could consume our developing democracy. The stakes are alarmingly high, as the ensuing power struggles not only threaten local stability but also risk undermining democratic progress nationwide.
First, I would like to offer Governor Siminalayi Fubara some sincere advice. As the Yorubas say, “Mon ja, mon sa la nmon, akinkanju logun.” He who fights and retreats will live to fight another day, but those who refuse to retreat will be consumed by war.
This proverbial wisdom underscores the necessity of timely strategic withdrawal, suggesting that sometimes stepping aside is the most honourable and prudent course of action in politics.
The unfolding drama in Rivers State is like a double-edged sword, it pits the Ijaw nation against the Ekweres, the riverine against the upland, and even sets the Odili dynasty against Wike, with former President Jonathan and his wife’s interests also in the mix.
We should not forget that Rotimi Amaechi and his allies are waiting for an opportunity to challenge Wike. I urge Governor Siminalayi Fubara, as a gentleman, to resign now as a hero before it is too late. If he resigns now, he will be remembered as a former governor and can enjoy all the benefits that come with that status. The political vultures are eagerly waiting to devour him and expel him from government; if Fubara allows this to happen, they will bury him politically forever.
In this turbulent environment, the wise course may well be to exit the stage on one’s own terms, preserving personal legacy and safeguarding future prospects, rather than being ousted in a hostile takeover that leaves one politically desolate.
From my investigations, it is clear that the ordinary people of Rivers State; civil servants, market women, and traditional institutions alike, love Governor Siminalayi Fubara and admire his projects.
Insider sources even suggest that former Governor Wike perceives Fubara’s achievements among ordinary Rivers citizens as outshining his own record in office.
This grassroots support, stemming from tangible improvements and developmental projects, speaks volumes about Fubara’s potential. Yet, such popular backing is at risk of being overshadowed by the relentless machinations of political elites who prioritise power over progress.
It is better for Fubara to choose peace and secure his own political future than to wait for the impending Wike war.
My advice to the Abuja powerbrokers is to seriously consider what is about to happen in Rivers State. I would also urge the leaders of Rivers State to convene a peace meeting to avert the looming political disaster.
A proactive dialogue among all stakeholders could help defuse tensions, creating a forum for reconciliation and a path toward sustainable governance that transcends personal rivalries.
The stage is set, and the two teams are ready and only God can save Rivers State. The convergence of longstanding grievances, shifting alliances, and power struggles has reached a tipping point.
Without decisive and conciliatory action, the state and by extension, the nation may witness a dramatic unraveling of its democratic fabric.
Finally, the Federal Government should urgently address the emirship crisis in Kano before it escalates and consumes the entire Northern region politically.
This crisis, like many others in our diverse nation, demands swift and thoughtful intervention. The resolution of such deep-seated disputes is not only vital for regional stability but also for reinforcing the principles of unity and justice that our democracy aspires to uphold.
God bless Nigeria.
Lai Gidado is the publisher of Ebony Herald International Magazine
8th March 2025
